Pound fluctuates amid fiscal plan confusion
The pound traded in a wide range on Tuesday, amid conflicting reports on when the UK government will publish its debt cutting plan.
Sterling is trading without strong direction this morning, with GBP/EUR stable at €1.1480 and GBP/USD muted at $1.1435. GBP/CAD is rangebound at C$1.5476, while GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD hold steady at AU$1.7604 and NZ$1.9927, respectively.
Coming up, could a weaker-than-expected US services PMI weaken the US dollar later this afternoon.
What’s been happening?
The pound initially rallied yesterday as GBP investors welcomed reports that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng would bring forward his medium-term fiscal plan to later this month.
However, Sterling subsequently gave ground as later comments from Kwarteng raised questions over this timeline. Kwarteng told GB News that he would publish his debt cutting plan on 23 November as originally planned.
The euro, meanwhile, rallied on Tuesday following the release of the Eurozone’s latest PPI figures.
A stronger-than-expected uptick in producer prices in August is bolstering expectations for future inflation readings and in turn strengthening European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike expectations.
Finally, the US dollar trended lower yesterday as a prevailing risk-off mood dented demand for the safe-haven currency.
These losses were then extended in the afternoon as the latest JOLTs release reported a larger-than-expected plunge in new US jobs openings.
What’s coming up?
Turning to today’s session, the highlight looks to be the publication of the latest ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
Consensus estimates suggest September’s index will report the US service sector continued to expand at a healthy pace at the end of the third quarter.
However, if the services index disappoints similarly to the manufacturing release earlier in the week, the US dollar could weaken.
In the meantime, finalised PMI figures from the Eurozone are expected to confirm activity in the bloc’s service sector contracted last month. Potentially limiting the appeal of the euro this morning.
For GBP investors the focus today may be on Liz Truss’s speech at the Conservative party conference. Could a combative tone from the PM spook GBP investors and weigh on the pound?
Need a chat about moving your money around? Contact Alastair on alastair.archbold@currenciesdirect.com to find out more about the latest news or how it could impact your currency transfers or your local agent Fiona on fiona.warren_agent@currenciesdirect.com.
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